Today, cranberry farms encompass roughly 13,500 acres spread across Southeastern Massachusetts. Cranberry farming is culturally and economically important in the region, but faces ongoing, compounding challenges that make it increasingly difficult for farms to stay profitable, and have led many farmers to consider new options for their farmland. With these different land use scenarios, we invite you to imagine and explore different potential uses of this farming land. In particular, this data tool explores the potential benefits of restoring former cranberry farms to their native wetland state. By using the sliders in the panel on the left, you can visualize different combinations of cranberry farming and restoration distributed across today's actual cranberry farms. These potential land use scenarios were randomly generated by our team.

Our team has modelled some of the potential environmental impacts of these different hypothetical land use scenarios through the lens of ecosystem services, or the positive benefits that ecosystems provide to humans. In particular, wetlands are unique ecosystems that are able to provide a number of beneficial ecosystem services to humans, including water purification, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity support, among others.

When cranberry farms are restored to their native wetland state, scientists believe that these newly restored wetlands could start to provide these benefits to local municipalities and the region more broadly. This data visualization tool is intended to allow citizens, farmers, towns leaders, conservationists, and others explore the geographical distribution of the potential benefits of wetland restoration.

In Southeastern Massachusetts, excess amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus pose a major threat to clean drinking water and acquatic ecosystems such as estuaries and freshwater ponds. Though nitrogen and phosphorus occur naturally in the environment, human activities can lead to excess quantities of these nutrients in waterways, which "contribute to algae blooms; low dissolved oxygen; degradation of seagrass; impaired freshwater and estuarine ecosystems; and, in extreme cases, fish kills" (Source: EPA). Nitrogen and phosphorus pollution are a major challenge in Southeastern Massachusetts, largely due to widespread septic systems and fertilizer application for agricultural and recreational uses.

Restoring cranberry farms to wetlands is thought to address the challenges of excess nutrient leaching and improve water quality in two ways: first, when cranberry farms are restored to wetlands, nutrient-rich fertilizer would no longer be applied to these areas on a yearly basis for agricultural purposes; and second, wetlands are able to absorb some of the excess nutrients transportated by groundwater, and prevent these nutrients from reaching rivers and bays in the watershed. Our team has modelled the nitrogen and phosphorus export to streams under different land use scenarios, to explore how cranberry bog restoration could help improve water quality in the region.

How was this estimated? We used the Nutrient Delivery Ratio (NDR) model from InVEST, a suite of open-source ecosystem service modeling tools developed by the Natural Capital Project. The NDR model calculates nitrogen or phosphorus export at a given point based on land use, precipitation, and topography. In particular, the model takes in the average nutrient load applied to each land use type, and the ability of that land use type to retain nutrients. The model uses this information to estimate the nutrient export from a given point in the landscape. We calibrated the model using data from the USGS SPARROW model at the HUC-12 watershed level. Cost saving estimates are based on the cost per pound of removing nitrogen and phosphorus through traditional wastewater management systems.

Biodiversity - that is, the range of plant, animal, bacteria, and fungi species in the world or in a particular area - faces significant threats from human activities like development and agriculture. While many people believe that biodiversity has intrinsic value, biodiversity is also closely linked to ecosystem services which provide value to humans, underpinning processes that regulate the climate and provide food and supplies to humans. Human activites, including farming, can threaten biodiversity through the application of chemical pesticides, physical barriers that prevent the movement of wildlife, and reducing species diversity due to monocultures. On the other hand, due to the nature of agriculture, agricultural landscapes can often support biodiversity in ways that, for example, high intensity development, can not.

With the possibility that current cranberry farming land may not be used for farming in the future, there is interest in understanding how different land use outcomes could support biodiversity. In studies, scientists have found that active restoration of cranberry farms to native freshwater wetlands has a positive impact on biodiversity, resulting in an increase in the number of species in these restored areas, and improving migratory pathways for fish. In some cases, these restored areas have been made available as recreational areas through partnerships with conservation NGOs. Our team has modelled habitat quality - or the ability of a habitat to support biodiversity - under different land use scenarios, to explore how cranberry bog restoration could help improve habitat quality in the region.

How was this estimated? We used the Habitat Quality model from InVEST, a suite of open-source ecosystem service modeling tools developed by the Natural Capital Project. The Habitat Quality model computes a relative habitat quality score that ranges from 0 to 1 based on land use type and proximity to man-made threats, including roads, agriculture, and development. The habitat quality score is not related to any specific biodiversity metric, but indicates an area's general ability to support healthy biodiversity. We calibrated the model using the "Core Habitats" layer from the BioMap2 data mapping project, which identifies key ecosystems in Massachusetts. We did not perform a value estimation for this ecosystem service due to the general nature of this metric.

The world is experiencing rapid climate change in the form of rising average temperatures due to the release of greenhouse gases - like carbon dioxide and methane - which trap heat in Earth's atmosphere. Though greenhouse gas emissions can happen anywhere in the world, impacts are already being felt locally in Massachusetts, with more frequent extreme weather events, changing growing seasons, and the theat of sea level rise. Solving climate change is a global challenge that will require a multifacted approach. One class of solutions called natural climate solutions aim to mitigate climate change through improved land management, conservation, and restoration. In this context, there is significant interest in studying if and how cranberry bog wetland restorations could address climate change.

The relationship between wetland restoration and greenhouse gas emissions is complex, because while wetlands typically act as a sink for carbon dioxide, they can be a source of methane emissions. Though more study is needed, research suggests that restored wetlands are likely to avoid the carbon dioxide emissions associated with agriculture, and sequester increasing amounts of carbon over time even as they emit methane. Over the long term, restored wetlands are thought to be net sinks for greenhouse gas emissions, helping to attenuate global warming. Our team has modelled only carbon storage and sequestration - not methane emissions - under different land use scenarios, to explore how cranberry bog restoration could contribute to climate change mitigation efforts in the region. In addition, we estimated the value of this potential sequestration using the social value of carbon, which is the cost of the social damage avoided by not releasing carbon into the atmosphere. While this is an abstract metric, a recent profusion of carbon markets and credit programs could allow towns or farmers to generate real revenue from carbon storage and sequestration.

How was this estimated? We used the Carbon Sequestration and Storage model from InVEST, a suite of open-source ecosystem service modeling tools developed by the Natural Capital Project. The carbon sequestration and storage model is a simplified model that estimates carbon storage based on the average carbon pools of different land use types. Sequestration is modelled as the difference between carbon storage at different points in time. We derived carbon pools information from a variety of sources, and in particular, based our estimation of the carbon sequestration potential of restored wetlands on research by Hemes et al, 2019. Carbon valuation is based on a conservative estimate of the social cost of carbon, with a discounting factor applied.

Economic comparisons are presented to help contextualize the value of potential restorations. Town budgets are the most recent, pre-COVID town budgets available, which were collected through ClearGov.com. Real estate estimates are based on tax assessment data from 2022, which was accessed through the MassGIS Data Portal. It is important to note that these parcel assessment values are not sale prices or market estimates. Additionally, the assessment values refer to a parcel of land that contains a cranberry bog; in some cases the parcel is roughly the same shape and size as the cranberry bog, while in others, the cranberry bog is situated on a much larger parcel that contains additional structures. Because many farms were built on natural wetlands, most bog areas are protected from development under the Wetlands Protection Act.

We hope this information can help raise awareness of the potential value of ecosystem services, which are not traditionally taken into account in real estate assessments. In some cases, the estimated value of ecosystem services from a wetland restoration represents a significant portion of the parcel value. Though our methods for estimating these values are imperfect, it is important to try to quantify the value of ecosystem services. Otherwise, benefits from the environment - and harms to the environment - are considered system externalities, and are not factored into land use decision-making.